Anybody seen the God gap? Updated Numbers!
Remember the God gap? That supposedly unbridgable chasm that separated people of faith from the Democratic Party. Well poll numbers out of last night's elections seem to show that this Religious Right-inspired myth has run into the hard truth of voter preference.
There will be numbers galore to crunch in the weeks ahead, but the early ones all show that the supposedly vast God gap is all but GONE. Amy Sullivan already has a piece up on this on the New Republic. Check out some of the numbers that we've noticed here at FPL:
All numbers are based on National Election Pool Exit Polls
Figures are based on available information. Many states do not have exit poll information for evangelicals, for example, from past elections. Please verify all numbers before using!
NATIONAL
Given the nationalized nature of the 2006 elections, we first compare 2006 national numbers to 2004 Presidential numbers. Second, we compare 2006 national numbers to 2004 National House.
Dramatic shift of Catholic vote
• Catholic Shift, Dems win Catholic vote – 16-point shift nationally from Bush’s numbers (R52/D47) in 2004 to 55D/44R; 12-point swing nationally from 2004 National House (49D/50R).
Dramatic shift of evangelical vote
• White Evangelical Shift from 2004 President – 15-point swing nationally from Bush’s numbers in 2004 (D21/R78) to D28/R70; 7-point swing nationally from 2004 National House (25D/74R)
o Evangelicals did show up – 24% this year compared to 23% of electorate in 2004.
Shift among voters who attend religious services once a week
• 10-point shift nationally among voters who attend religious services once a week (2004 Presidential (58R/41D), up to near parity D46/R53; 8-point shift nationally from 2004 National House D42/R57.
Minimum Wage passed by 31-point average across 6 states
• All 6 Minimum Wage ballot initiatives passed by avg of 31 points
• Declining enthusiasm for their issues: First defeat of a same-sex marriage ban: AZ. Passed in 5 other states, but by an avg of 12-points less than 35-point average of 2004, with 3 more moderate states all under 10 points. NOTE: SD abortion ban failed.
OHIO
• 42-point Catholic shift from Mike DeWine (R) in 2000 to those voting for Sherrod Brown (D) in 2006. There was also a 19-point swing to the Democrats compared to President Bush’s 11-point margin on the Catholic vote in 2004.
• 31-point Protestant/Christian shift from Mike DeWine (R) in 2000 to Sherrod Brown (D) in 2006. This was also a 16-point swing from President Bush’s 12-point edge with Protestant voters in 2004.
• 32-point White Protestant/Christian shift from Mike DeWine (R) in 2000 to Sherrod Brown (D) in 2006.
• 31-point shift among voters who attend religious services once a week from Mike DeWine (R) in 2000 to Sherrod Brown (D). This was also a 24-point swing from President Bush’s 28-point edge with voter who attend religious services weekly in 2004.
PENNSYLVANIA
• 25-point Catholic shift from Rick Santorum (R) in 2000 to Bob Casey, Jr. (D) in 2006 and swing of 21 points from President Bush’s 2-point deficit on the Catholic vote in 2004.
• 22-point shift among voters who attend religious services once a week to Casey from Santorum’s margin in 2000; 14-point shift to Casey from Bush’s margin in 2004.
VIRGINIA
• 16-point Catholic shift from George Allen (R) in 2000 to Jim Webb (D) in 2006, and 25 points from President Bush in 2004.
• 14-point shift among voters who attend religious services once a week to Jim Webb from George Allen’s margin in 2000; 5 point shift to Webb from Bush in 2004.
MONTANA
• 11-point Catholic shift from Conrad Burns (R) in 2000 to Tester in 2006. A 15-point shift from President Bush’s numbers in 2004.
• 13-point white evangelical shift for Tester from President Bush’s numbers in 2004.
Ballot Initiatives
Raise Minimum Wage:
AZ: 66-34; 32-point margin (99% reporting)
CO: 53-47; 6-point margin (88% reporting)
MO: 76-24; 52-point margin (98% reporting)
MT: 73-27; 46-point margin (99% reporting)
NV: 69-31; 38-point margin (99% reporting)
OH: 56-44; 12-point margin (99% reporting)
Average margin of victory: 31%
Ban Same-Sex Marriage
AZ: 49-51; negative 2-point margin (99% reporting)
CO: 56-44; 8-point margin (88% reporting)
ID: 63-37; 26-point margin (91% reporting)
SC: 78-22; 56-point margin (99% reporting)
SD: 52-48; 4-point margin (99% reporting)
TN: 81-19; 61-point margin (99% reporting)
VA: 57-43; 14-point margin (99% reporting)
WI: 59-41; 18-point margin (99% reporting)
Average margin of victory: 23%
Allow Stem Cell
MO: 51-49; 2-point margin (98% reporting)
Ban Abortion:
SD: 44-56; -12-point margin (99% reporting)
Comments
So you Dems went to Christianity just to get some votes. What you did was show support for the fascist Reps and I am no longer a Dem. You stated you would use Christian principals (=fascism) to govern. What happened to the CONSTITUTION & the 3 SEPARATE BRANCHES OF GOVT. You disgust me!
Posted by: Joan Tyson | November 8, 2006 4:00 PM
Nice to meet you too, Joan. If you believe any expression of religious conviction in the public square is equated to fascism, well, I and the majority of the country disagree. I do sympathize with your fears, but think there's much room for productive interaction between faith and politics that respects the separation of church and state that has allowed religion to flourish in this country.
Posted by: David Buckley | November 8, 2006 4:07 PM
Err... Joan; Christianity is not Fascism. In fact its nowhere close; let me explain...
Alot of the Republicans have used all the most negative and twisted passages they could wring out of the Bible just to say "See, we're Godly!" - The thing is, they *live* for the "Fire and brimstone" Old Testament stuff. The "God will smite ye because he's having an off day" variety.
Christ - messiah or no (he was a historic figure; so you can't claim he didn't exist at all) - advocated a very liberal approach to things.
Love they neighbor as yourself: Something today we call "Equality" and "Social Justice".
Love the Foreigner as one of your own (Fixing Illegal immigration without deporting 11 million people)
It is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter heaven (Imagine the "rich man" is in fact the corrupt republican policies toward corporations).
The christianity so many people profess is not the truth of it - it's a lie. It's the Christianity of "Supply Side" Jesus - the Jesus of the rich.
Also - Seperation of Church and State means, as follows:
You cannot endorse a given religion in an official capaicity (meaning you cannot make laws governing which religions may and may not be practiced - you aren't supposed to favor any either)
You may not force anyone to convert to a religion, nor to disavow a religion.
That's the idea of Seperation of Church and State. You can't expect a politician to rule based on anything more than personal philosophy and the facts at hand - and Religion can, and *will* shape Personal Philosophy.
The problem we've had lately is that people have been ignoring the facts when they are inconvienent.
Anyway - my point is this: Democrats didn't "grab votes" by going for religious voters - the core principals of the party have never changed; What we *did* do is say "Hey, we aren't *opposed* to God either". That is to say, Democrats have long been portrayed as somehow hostile to religion. We are not, nor have we ever been as a party - what we are, is willing to support that separation of church and state.
Republicans talk a good game when it comes to religion, but the proof has been in the pudding - they make claims of Godliness, but they are nothing but liars and thieves cloaked in the garments of priests.
Posted by: JoelJ | November 8, 2006 7:37 PM
I've never been a big fan of organized religion, or anything thats organized for that matter, however I do see the need for structure.
That said, I've always been spiritual, leaning towards the basic tenants of Christianity for guidance. When the republicans overtook the church I was appalled. Everything that I valued from the teachings of Christ was turned to blasphemy, and I wanted more than ever to chase the money lenders from the Temple of God.
I am glad to see the Democrats reunite with the church, not for the sake of our government, rather to save our faith from the corruption that has plagued it from the conservative front.
Posted by: Kozzmo | November 8, 2006 10:36 PM
I believe it is still too early to figure out exactly what this election meant, although it should be clear that the war and corruption played a big part in a shift of seven million voted from one part to the other in the course of two years. The shift of people of faith is something long in coming, and I believe made acute by the consistent failure of the Bush Administration and the Republican Congress to act on the agenda favored by the Christian Right. Combined with the changed on-going in the evanagelical community, I do not think there is much of a "Christian conservative" base left. The challenge for the Democratic Party is to hold these people now that their toes are in the door.
As for Joan, please don't try to respond to her; if she hates, she hates. I feel bad for her, but there is no arguing with a fanatic.
Can you note my new blog on your roll, BTW? I am linked here again.
Posted by: Geoffrey | November 10, 2006 10:19 AM
