Let's probe a real All Hallows Eve fissure in the popular "crackup" narrative developing on the religious right. Noting the effect of the Giuiliani campaign on this "death," "reconfiguration," or "reformation," of social conservatives, the American Spectator's W. James Antle III prognosticates in The Politico, on the effect a Giuliani win in November would have on the role of abortion in his own party. He writes:

For starters, the media will portray a Giuliani win as a victory for the right to choose [between pro and anti] and the final defeat of the religious right. The GOP is filled with politicians who oppose abortion only because it is the path of least resistance. President Giuliani would alleviate the pressure. Republicans who aspire to the presidency have always been well-advised to become anti-abortion. A Giuliani defeat of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney would advertise that such conversions are no longer required.

If this plays out, Giuliani could be creating a kind of reverse litmus test for future GOP candidates. Antle argues:

It will also reveal whether those who speak on behalf of “values voters” know what they are talking about. Giuliani has previously donated money to Planned Parenthood, praised Margaret Sanger and advocated taxpayer-funded abortion. He remains in support of abortion rights and in favor of domestic partnerships.

It's important to stop here and point out that Pat Robertson is supporting Guiliani, but not conservative Catholics. Now whatever one thinks about the sincerity of Robertson, this raises the deeper question about how this will play out with the Catholic/evangelical social alliance of the past elections. Antle mentions Brownback dropping out, but he fails to note that the majority of Brownback's votes and money came from conservative Catholics. This gets at a deeper problem both in the reporting on the religious right and the "crackup" narrative.

Unless Guiliani starts genuflecting in some churches and on the old social issues, and sans a Brownback endorsement, the cracks may widen between evangelicals who emphasize fighting "terrorism" and antiabortion Catholics who feel betrayed for supporting an unjust war.

On this day that Martin Luther nailed his 95 thesis to the Wittenberg door, it will be interesting to see how some of the major conservative Catholic leaders -- who have carried Protestant culture war water -- will react. Will they feel tricked by a Guiliani-comfortable party, or will they treat everyone to a real "crackup" narrative, aka, a schism?