Bold Faith Type

Another surprising and problematic poll

Franklin & Marshall released a Pennsylvania poll today with some eyebrow-raising figures, as well as some red flags. The numbers:

--Obama up 44-36 percent among registered voters, 46-41 among likelies.

--McCain leads 45-37 percent among protestants (no racial disambiguation) and 48-31 among those who self-identified "born again Christian or fundamentalist," and Obama is winning Catholics 44-37. Coming off the Barna poll I blogged about yesterday, this puts another nail in the coffin for "Obama's Catholic problem."

The problems:

--The religious ID options did not include "evangelical," as is common now. It might seem a quibble, but there's a world of difference between fundamentalist and evangelical.

--When sorting candidate preference by issue priority, "moral and family values" was offered as a distinct category, apart from the Iraq war, healthcare, the economy, energy policy, taxes, foreign policy, or "something else." Didn't we learn about the pitfalls of this after the 2004 exit polls? "Moral and family values" can mean anything and thus nothing. Is it meant as a stand-in for abortion and same-sex marriage? Then why not say that? Why does the issue preference question ask about a 6 specific issues, and one amorphous "values" answer? (In case you're wondering, 9 percent of respondents chose moral and family values as most important, and 77 percent of them prefer McCain.)

--The sample was 89 percent white.

(h/t, once again, to Mark Silk. Ps, Mark, I endorse your hobby horse.)


Posted by Dan on August 13, 2008 2:38 PM | | Bookmark and Share

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