Bold Faith Type

As Predicted, Young Evangelicals Broke Toward Obama

Last month the Faith and American Politics Survey, sponsored by FPL and conducted by Public Religion Research, showed that 29 percent of white evangelicals ages 18-34 supported now President-elect Barack Obama over John McCain. An exit poll analysis by Laurie Goodstein in today's New York Times confirms this finding and offers additional evidence that young evangelicals are less beholden to the Republican party than their peers.

Laurie's cross-tabs of the exits show that 32 percent of white evangelicals ages 18-29 voted for Barack Obama -- fully double John Kerry's 16 percent share in 2004. By way of comparison, Obama improved upon Kerry's performance among 18-29's as a whole by 12 points. Similarly, Obama gained 11 percentage points over Kerry among white evangelicals ages 30-44 (from 12 percent to 23) and just 6 points among 30-44's as a whole.

This is consistent with the Faith In American Politics Survey findings that young evangelicals are more pluralistic, less conservative and more supportive of an active government at home and abroad than their elders. Together, these findings signal a potential long-term shift among a new generation of evangelical voters.

So, to recap: Following a targeted effort to win over young white evangelicals by appealing to their values and their issues, Obama doubled his share of the two youngest cohorts of them, well-outpacing his gains among those age groups as a whole.

I'm not saying that young evangelicals are becoming a core consituency of the Democratic party -- two thirds did vote for McCain, after all -- but no one was expecting a wholesale reversal. What many of us were predicting about young evangelicals, though -- that their broadening agenda would erode their conservative partisanship and lead significant numbers away from the GOP -- came true.


Posted by Dan on November 7, 2008 9:25 AM | | del.icio.us |

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